HSBC forecasts positive GDP, low credit growth

17:42 | 06/08/2014

VGP – Viet Nam’s credit would only post a 10% growth rate in spite of good GDP growth rate in 2014, according to HSBC Global Research.

HSBC recently published a report titled “Credit growth and inflation” on the macro-economic outlook for Viet Nam, updated for August 2014.

 

HSBC forecast that credit growth will be 10%, lower than the State Bank of Viet Nam (SBV)’s goal for 12-14%. Since early this year, credit has expanded 3.6% from the end of 2013 and about 11% on year.

Manufacturing is one of the reasons behind the economy’s growth of 5% to 5.5% in recent years.

 

By July 2014, exports expanded by 14.1%, supporting the economy.  Since December, HSBC manufacturing PMI has been above 50.

 

The recent uptick of employment suggests that producers are expecting a rebounding US and China to boost demand for VietNam-manufactured goods.

 

HSBC reported that the bounce in external demand, especially in the fourth quarter 2014, should boost the manufacturing sector further, HSBC also forecast continued growth next year, as new FDI investment begins to commence operations and a rebounding of the global environment.

 

HSBC predict that inflation with the exception of seasonal fluctuations resulting from service price increases and weather events affecting food supply and global oil prices, too, should hover around the 4.5% to 6.5% range./.

 

By Kim Loan