Vietnam – In a remarkable show of resilience against global economic fluctuations, Vietnam has witnessed a significant recovery in its export sector, with positive trends expected to continue in the upcoming quarters. Data indicates that Vietnam's export revenue has seen gradual improvement throughout the year, overcoming initial challenges.
The initial downturn in exports, with a year-on-year drop of 11.9% in the first quarter, was progressively mitigated to a decline of 11.8% in the second quarter and further reduced to only 1.2% in the third quarter. These encouraging signs have led experts to be optimistic about the recovery of global demand and the prospect of high growth in Vietnam's exports in the fourth quarter.
Agricultural products like rice and fruit have experienced substantial growth, underlining the sector's strength. Moreover, Vietnam has been successful in diversifying its export markets and maximizing opportunities in key regions such as the US, the EU, Africa, and Western Asia. Efficient exploitation of border trade has also bolstered exports to neighboring countries, notably China.
The garment and textile industry has shown recovery signs, with increasing interest from partners in Europe, Northeast Asia, and Southeast Asia. Export activities to the US and EU markets are also showing improvement.
According to Vietnam News Agency, inventories in markets where Vietnam holds strong advantages have decreased notably. For instance, in the US, inventory levels dropped from 20% in the first six months to 10% in August, and are forecasted to reach 0% by the end of 2023. This trend presents an opportunity to augment exports to the US, Vietnam's largest export market.
The department emphasized that Vietnamese exporters have effectively navigated global headwinds through efforts to seek new markets and optimize new generation free trade agreements (FTAs). However, experts advise domestic firms to enhance production and diversify material supply sources to reduce market dependency. They also highlight the importance of strengthening business connectivity, renovating production technologies, and building trademarks to boost competitiveness and attract more investors.
Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien has committed to improving the ministry’s forecasting capabilities and expediting negotiations and signings of new bilateral and multilateral cooperation mechanisms with promising countries. The ministry aims to optimize the role of Vietnamese trade offices abroad in providing market information and policy insights.
Dien also pledged support for businesses to navigate trade barriers and fully leverage FTAs, addressing challenges in capital access and administrative procedures. This support is geared towards aiding businesses in their recovery and production development, thereby increasing exports. The ministry's strategy includes assisting exporters in tapping into emerging, niche, and potential markets and diversifying export markets through official channels.